Alright, everybody's been asking plenty of questions about the playoff picture at the moment, so I finally got a chance to finish everything up (which will change plenty, I'm sure, by the end of this weekend).
In Class L, it's simple for Naugatuck: Win and you're in, lose and you're out. The Hounds will be watching closely their bonus points if they can upset Ansonia, because my projections right now have them one point short of Avon for the No. 4 spot if Naugy wins. Naugatuck needs to root for Killingly, Holy Cross, Sacred Heart, Torrington, Kennedy, Seymour, Derby, and St. Paul to get its maximum bonus points. Avon has the luxury of playing in a conference in which all of its defeated opponents play each other, so it's going to earn its maximum average of 129.00. Naugy's going to have to at least tie that to earn a home quarterfinal.
In Class M, Watertown, Wolcott, and Derby are still mathematically alive, but there needs to be utter chaos in order for any of those teams to qualify. The Indians have the best chance of the three, but a lot of unlikely things need to happen for Watertown to make it.
Class S is the most exciting of the four classes, I think, because there are only 11 teams still alive, but the last five spots are wide open. Ansonia has already clinched its playoff berth, and although it hasn't officially earned a home game, it's a virtual lock. Woodland and Sacred Heart will be battling it out in terms of which team earns more bonus points to leap above the other.
Here's the basic situation in Class S: In addition to Ansonia, Valley Regional/Old Lyme and Montville have also clinched playoff berths, leaving the remaining eight teams to battle for the final five spots. If Woodland and Sacred Heart both take care of business and win on Thanksgiving eve (which, if they don't, they don't deserve to qualify), neither Capital Prep nor North Branford can catch them, meaning it will be down to six teams for five spots.
There are a number of crucial games which will both directly and indirectly affect the Class S standings. The first of those major games are Friday night when Hyde meets Valley Regional and North Branford plays Coginchaug. If you're Woodland and Sacred Heart, you're rooting for Valley Regional and North Branford in a big way.
Even bigger than those games will be the Thanksgiving week games. St. Joseph-Trumbull could be the most important game to the Hawks' and Hearts' chances, because if the Cadets lose, it could open the door for both Woodland and Sacred Heart to make it. Both teams will also be pulling hard for Coginchaug to beat Cromwell next week.
Bonus points could also be huge for Woodland and Sacred Heart. The Hawks will be pulling for Watertown, Holy Cross, Kennedy, Naugatuck, and St. Paul, while the Hearts will want Torrington, Crosby, Cheney Tech, Derby, and St. Paul to win. That means the rest of the league has a heck of a lot to do with who either makes the playoffs or what seed they get.
To put it simply, here goes: At least two NVL teams will make it (Ansonia and at least either Woodland or Sacred Heart). The door is open for both the Hawks and Hearts to qualify with some help, as long as they both win. If St. Joseph loses to Trumbull, the chances improve for both teams. If Coginchaug beats Cromwell, both Woodland and Sacred Heart will definitely be in. If either Hyde or Coginchaug lose their last two games, both Woodland and Sacred Heart will definitely be in.
Finally, here's the tiebreaker situation, because it might come down to one or two of them: Woodland would likely hold the breaker over St. Joseph, but lose to Sacred Heart, but Sacred Heart would lose to St. Joseph. Yep.
When all is said and done, here's how I think it will end up.
1. Ansonia: 10-0, 153.00 avg.
2. Valley Regional: 10-0, 152.00 avg.
3. Montville: 9-1, 136.00 avg.
4. Hyde Leadership: 8-2, 118.00 avg.
5. Cromwell: 8-2, 113.00 avg.
6. Coginchaug: 8-2, 111.00 avg.
7. Woodland: 7-3, 109.00 avg.
8. St. Joseph: 7-3, 109.00 avg.
9. Sacred Heart: 7-3, 108.00 avg.
Here's a full, detailed look at every class (or you can pick and choose which ones you want to see) on the Red Zone blog.
