Playoff Projections

I just finished almost three days' worth of crunching playoff numbers and I've finally come out with my playoff projections as of Wednesday night.

My projections say Naugatuck will miss the Class L cut (thanks to a loss to Ansonia) and Holy Cross will miss the Class S playoffs (thanks to a loss to Naugatuck). Ansonia will be the top seed in Class S, while Woodland will be 5th and Sacred Heart 8th in Class S.

Behind all that, there's a ton of math and predictions, so here's a link to the specifics on the Red Zone blog.

If Naugatuck beats Ansonia, it will be ranked around 5th in Class L. If Holy Cross beats Naugatuck and Wolcott, it should be able to overtake Sacred Heart, as long as the Hearts don't beat Woodland.

Watertown and Wolcott would need to win out and get quite a bit of help from above in Class M, neither of which I expect to happen.

Here are my mathematical projections for the five seriously contending NVL teams:
Class L- Naugatuck: 8-2, 109.00 average (10th place, 5.00 behind 8th)
Class S- Ansonia: 10-0, 155.00 average (1st place--will host Sacred Heart)
Class S- Woodland: 8-2, 126.00 average (5th place--will play at Valley Regional)
Class S- Sacred Heart: 6-4, 93.00 average (8th place--will play at Ansonia)
Class S- Holy Cross: 6-4, 89.00 average (9th place--4.00 behind 8th)