Here we go with the final look at the playoffs. I'm just going to briefly summarize what's going on for the four NVL teams seriously in contention. If you want to see the full explanation and projections I've made, check out my Red Zone blog post.
Ansonia clinched its Class S playoff berth weeks ago and clinched a home quarterfinal game last week. Its game against Naugatuck this week is basically for the top seed and that's about it.
The three other serious contenders are in a win-and-in scenario. Naugatuck will qualify for the Class L playoffs with a win over Ansonia and probably wouldn't get in with a loss. The Hounds are actually in very good position to earn a home quarterfinal if they beat the Chargers. They would likely gain enough points to jump Wethersfield into fourth position, or if New Canaan beats Darien, into third position. Quite frankly, Naugy would want the fourth spot to face Wethersfield in the first round because the third spot would likely bring a game against New Canaan.
Woodland and Sacred Heart can also clinch Class S berths with wins on Thanksgiving eve. Important losses by Coginchaug and Cromwell last week opened the door wide for the Hawks and Hearts. In fact, both teams would still have a good chance at qualifying even if they lose, especially if Coginchaug beats Cromwell.
Both Woodland and Sacred Heart could be in line for the final home quarterfinal spot, too, if St. Joseph loses to Trumbull and Hyde loses to North Branford. In that scenario, I have Woodland beating St. Joseph and Sacred Hearts by slim margins to gain the No. 5 seed.
Watertown and Wolcott are still mathematically alive in Class M but both teams would need to win and get a ridiculous amount of help to qualify.
If Ansonia, Woodland, and Sacred Heart all win and the bonus points shake out like I predict, here's what my Class S playoff matchups look like:
#1 Ansonia vs. #8 Cromwell
#2 Valley Regional vs. #7 Hyde Leadership
#3 Montville vs. #6 Sacred Heart
#4 Woodland vs. #5 St. Joseph
If Ansonia loses to Naugatuck, then I would drop Ansonia to the No. 3 spot and have the Chargers and Hearts matching up in the quarterfinals. There would be a very, very small chance that Ansonia could drop to fourth if St. Joseph wins and the bonus points work out the right way, meaning that we'll see the Ansonia-Woodland rematch in the quarterfinals instead of a potential semifinal matchup as it looks now.
If Naugatuck wins, Darien beats New Canaan, and the bonus points work out as I predict, the Class L playoffs matchups would look like this:
#1 Masuk vs. #8 Windsor
#2 Darien vs. #7 Maloney
#3 Daniel Hand vs. #6 North Haven
#4 Naugatuck vs. #5 Wethersfield
By the way, there is no reseeding in the playoff brackets, meaning #1/#8 plays #4/#5 and #2/#7 plays #3/#6 regardless of upsets.
