The Road to Rentschler ends this weekend as Holy Cross and Ansonia try to bring back two state championships to the NVL for the first time since 2007. Both teams will be favored competing in the first two games of the weekend.
In Class S, No. 2 Holy Cross (11-2) seeks its second state championship and first since 2006 when it faces No. 8 Cromwell (10-2) from the Pequot Conference in the first game of the weekend on Friday at 6:30 p.m.
In Class M, No. 1 Ansonia (13-0) tries to become the first team in state history to complete a 14-0 season when it takes on No. 3 Ledyard (11-1) of the Eastern Connecticut Conference on Saturday at 10:30 a.m.
Class S: No. 2 Holy Cross vs. No. 8 Cromwell Remmy's Keys to the Game: Cromwell possesses a high-powered offense (averaging 499 yards of total offense per game) while Holy Cross has a stifling defense. Holy Cross has made plays in the secondary all year, especially causing turnovers and turning those into points. That's been the story for the Crusaders' defense all season long. We know Cromwell will throw the ball with a very talented quarterback. Holy Cross' plan has to be to limit Cromwell from gaining big rushing yardage and force Cromwell to go to the air, where it will be more vulnerable to turning over the ball.
Kyle's Keys to the Game: Holy Cross' defense has been up to the task most of the time this season. In eight of its 11 wins, the Crusaders have given up 14 points or less. When allowing 20 points or more, though, Holy Cross is 3-2 on the year. With how explosive Cromwell's offense is, it will be quite a challenge to hold the Panthers to that figure. In fact, the fewest points Cromwell has scored this season was 21 in a loss to Valley Regional/Old Lyme late in the regular season. In nine of 12 games, the Panthers have scored at least 40 points. But Cromwell's defense is nothing special, having allowed at least 20 points to most of its quality opponents this season (except for the playoffs, in which it has allowed 33 points in two games).
With two capable offenses, this game could come down to the turnover battle and which team can best create off those turnovers. This season, Cromwell was plus-11 (eight turnovers, 19 takeaways) in turnover margin while Holy Cross was plus-19 (eight turnovers, 27 takeaways). Meanwhile the Crusaders have scored eight return touchdowns while the Panthers have managed only two. Certainly, it looks like Holy Cross has the advantage in playmaking defenses, but one key stat in which Cromwell has an advantage is sacks. The Panthers have 40 sacks in 12 games while Holy Cross has just 16. If the Crusaders struggle to get pressure in the passing game, that will be a definite advantage to Cromwell.
Offensively, both of these teams are balanced but the Panthers appear to have more balance and more prolific threats than Holy Cross. Cromwell averages about 20 pass attempts a game (and more than 280 yards per game) and also averages nearly 30 rushes per game (and more than 213 yards a game). Meanwhile, Holy Cross averages just over 10 pass attempts per game (and about 65 yards a game) and about 35 rushes per game (and about 205 yards a game). The stats undoubtedly favor Cromwell, but Holy Cross hasn't built itself upon statistics this season. The Crusaders have used new players seemingly every game to break through. In all, 11 different players have scored touchdowns for Holy Cross, and those are all in varsity play. Having so many threats makes it difficult for a defense to key in on just one or two players.
Remmy's Key Players: It doesn't matter who the opponent is, Holy Cross freshman WR/DB Isaiah Wright is one of the most talented players on the field every night. He makes plays in the secondary, special teams, and offense (backfield and wideout). If Holy Cross does not get him going, I don't expect the 'Saders to leave Rentschler Field with the trophy. Holy Cross DB Joe Parent has also been stellar this season on defense and special teams. Parent may be the unsung hero in this game if Cross wins it. I expect Parent to make impact plays on defense Friday night. For Cromwell, it's QB Anthony Morales. Morales, a 6-foot-2, 180-pounder, has thrown for 3,365 yards and 42 touchdowns this season. That's insane. RB Derrick Villard isn't that bad, either. Villard has rushed for 1,964 yards and 24 TD.
Kyle's Key Players: The Crusaders' two-headed main rushing attack of Dave DiGiorgi and Adrian Brown has been splendid all season. DiGiorgi had perhaps his best game of the season in the semifinals against Valley Regional with 187 yards and a touchdown, bringing his postseason total to 311 yards and three scores. Brown is just as capable and may be in line for an increased workload in the state final. Holy Cross QB Zach Brown has done a very nice job of managing the game and taking care of the ball since about midway through the season. If it comes down to it, he can make some plays with his legs. The Crusaders ran some option against Wolcott and most of the time it met some nice success. That could be a tactic Cross looks to employ later in the game for a change of pace or a clock-eater. On defense, Anthony Jamele and George Smith will be huge on the defensive line to keep the pressure on Morales and the Cromwell passing game. With a quarterback that can put up such high numbers, it's key to get pressure on him and force him into making quick decisions. For the Panthers, Michael Sullivan and Michael Dowe have combined for 29 sacks. If they make their presence felt at the line of scrimmage, it could severely disrupt Holy Cross' offense. Michael Antonio and Brett Director are the main targets for Morales in the receiving corps, combining for 2,269 yards and 28 touchdowns.
Remmy's Pick: Make no mistake about it, Holy Cross is in for a big-time battle. Cromwell boasts the state's best offense (statistically) and is walking into a no-pressure situation as an eighth seed. I expect Holy Cross to take away the run game and force Cromwell to beat them through the air--a tough task. But more importantly, Holy Cross must find its identity on offense. Every game this year, we've seen a different player win the game for Holy Cross. Can the Crusaders get by this week by doing the same? Who will it be this time? I am just worried that Holy Cross will not score enough points. This team isn't made for a shootout. However, I'll take my chances after seeing Cross' defense step it up late in the season. Holy Cross, 28-24.
Kyle's Pick: Cromwell is likely the second-best offense that Holy Cross will have faced all season with everything the Panthers can do and how prolifically they can do it. But the Crusaders' defense has been up to the challenge all season and has made some really big plays to shift momentum and take hold of games. If Cromwell goes through this entire game without turning over the ball, it likely wins this game. But if Holy Cross forces mistakes and capitalizes, the Crusaders have a great chance of winning their second state title. Holy Cross, 31-27.
Class M: No. 1 Ansonia vs. No. 3 Ledyard Remmy's Keys to the Game: From what I am hearing, Ledyard is a very well-coached and very disciplined team. The Colonels are very similar to Ansonia, as far as the type of offense they run. They love running power and love pulling the guard, just like Ansonia does. The big difference for Ledyard this week will be they are playing Ansonia and not someone in the ECC. Ledyard ran power close to 30 times against Wolcott. It sounds crazy, but we might see Ledyard running power 30 times against Ansonia because the Colonels do not have a great passing game. That leads us to the possibility of the Colonels hitting Ansonia unexpectedly with a play-action here and there. The quarterback is underrated because he isn't used much but he has the ability to make plays, as he is athletic and tough. The Ledyard defense makes big plays and swarms to the ball very aggressively. Its linebacking corps are the heart and soul of the defense. They are very tough and love to blitz. Ledyard better not just tackle or try to hit Newsome hard. I guarantee Ledyard has been practicing strip drills more this week than any other week this season. I know they've seen Arkeel Newsome fumble and they know they will have to create turnovers and capitalize off of them to derail Ansonia. Keep an eye on that.
For Ansonia, I expect Arkeel Newsome to get 35 carries and surpass Alex Thomas' record (3,596 yards) for the most rushing yards in a season. Newsome needs 198 rushing yards to break the record. Speaking of blitzing, Ansonia loves to blitz, too. So expect some awesome collisions at the line of scrimmage on Saturday morning. And don't be surprised if Tom Brockett catches Ledyard off-guard with some play-action. The passing game has not been needed much this season for Ansonia but if the Chargers choose to go that route, it could be the determining factor in this game. In my opinion, I think Ansonia will run Newsome all day long and try to turn this game into a blowout as early as possible to secure the win.
Kyle's Keys to the Game: This game will come down to line play, as it often does. We all know how superb Ansonia's offensive line is after helping pave the way for Newsome's record-setting season. But the Chargers' front will have even more to do this week as Ledyard liked to blitz early and often against Wolcott to disrupt Mike Nicol and his option offense. Blitzing against Ansonia is a risky proposition, but we really haven't seen most teams try it this season. On one hand, bringing more defenders gives the defense a better chance at getting somebody to penetrate and get to Newsome in the backfield, where he is most vulnerable. On the other hand, bringing more defenders at the snap means Newsome has fewer guys to beat in the second and third levels--and that could mean some of his now-trademarked long touchdown runs. Neither team's passing game has had that much work this season, but in a game with two good defenses, perhaps they will be forced to open it up a little bit. Statistically, Ledyard's defense has been better than Ansonia's this season. The Colonels have allowed fewer points (125 to Ansonia's 154) and have posted more shutouts (four to Ansonia's one). But of course, stats don't tell the whole story and I think we all know that the Chargers' defense is best and should more easily be able to limit Ledyard than vice versa.
Remmy's Key Players: I don't think Kyle and I have talked about the Ansonia secondary all year long. But this week, I have to address it. Ledyard will try to run RB
Alex Manwaring right into the heart of the Ansonia defense. He's a very patient runner as you can see in each video. If the run game isn't there for Ledyard early in the game, I expect the Colonels to go to the air quickly, before the game gets out of hand, and test the Ansonia secondary. That means
Raeshaun Finney, who intercepted a pass against Berlin,
Miky Mason,
Jai'Quan McKnight, and
Hezekiah Duncan will need to be on their toes early in this game. It goes without saying that Ansonia has some bullies on defense, specifically LB
Tyler Wood and DE
Jake LaRovera, arguably two of the hardest hitters on this defense (well, not arguably, but factually). I'll let Kyle talk about
Arkeel Newsome.
Kyle's Key Players: This could be the first time this season that Newsome gets to run for four quarters. He has yet to be on the field for the final whistle of any game yet in 2011, but if he can help it, this game will not be any different. While Ledyard has some good size up front and some athleticism in the secondary, Newsome is going to be the biggest challenge the Colonels have faced all season. If the teams try to go power against power, then Ansonia FB
Dennis Danley will be as important as ever. He has been one of the unsung heroes on this team all season and has been a big part of Newsome's records. For Ledyard, Manwaring is the feature back but FB
Matt Daggett is a go-to player in short-yardage situations and is a bull. In addition, WR/DB
Slade Baxley is Ledyard's version of Isaiah Wright. The Colonels will send him out wide, put him in motion, or hand it off to Baxley, who is dynamic with the ball. He's also excellent in the secondary and could be seeing a lot of Newsome back there.
Remmy's Pick: I expect Ledyard's offense to struggle with Ansonia's defense. No, Ansonia doesn't throw the ball exclusively. But Ansonia's running game is stronger than the Colonels' run game and I think that will be the difference. The Chargers haven't had to rely on the passing game but the Colonels might have to in this game. And that's why I expect it to be ugly. In addition, the athletes on defense for Ansonia are likely the best Ledyard will have faced all season. Ansonia's speed, and mainly their strength, on offense and defense has been outstanding. Ledyard will have to find a way to beat that. If Ledyard goes down by two or three touchdowns, it could get ugly in a hurry. Ledyard doesn't have the type of offense that can go down the field in huge spurts because it is power-run oriented. Without an explosive offense, I think the Colonels are in for the game of their lives. One more thing: Can Ledyard contain Newsome and the Ansonia offensive line for FOUR QUARTERS? That's not easy to do. I haven't seen a team match Ansonia's intensity nor talent level all season long. Why should I expect anything different this week?
Ansonia, 48-14.
Kyle's Pick: I've said that this could be the closest game Ansonia plays all season because of Ledyard's defensive ability and toughness on the ground. But just because I think it may be closer than usual doesn't mean it's going to be most people's definition of close. Ledyard will stay in this game for a little while with its productive running game and solid defense, but we've seen Ansonia held down for about a quarter before. We haven't seen the Chargers suppressed for any more than that. Ansonia wears down on opponents with its size and speed. The same will likely happen here.
Ansonia, 34-10.
The other two state championships on Saturday afternoon pit the Southern Connecticut Conference against the Fairfield County Interscholastic Athletic Conference. Remmy and Kyle chime in.
Class L: No. 2 Daniel Hand (12-0) vs. No. 5 New Canaan (11-1): Remmy-
New Canaan, 30-28. Kyle-
Daniel Hand, 35-31.
Class LL: No. 1 Xavier (12-0) vs. No. 2 Staples (11-0): Remmy-
Xavier, 35-24. Kyle-
Xavier, 41-21.
We'll also be having a final tailgate before (and probably after) the Ansonia-Ledyard game on Saturday morning, so feel free to stop by.
Remmy and Kyle will be at Rentschler Field by 8 a.m. on Saturday. We'll be tailgating until about 10 a.m. and will be heading into the stadium for the Ansonia-Ledyard game. We will likely tailgate after the game for a while, so stop by. If you plan to bring anything, let us know. Otherwise, just come by and hang out.Good luck to Holy Cross and Ansonia this weekend!
